#1 - Fresh from the press

Goooood morning.

Martin here. Bringing the Sunday energy and stock market insights.

Whether you are reading this from your bed or with oatmeal between your teeth, I hope you’re ready.

First things first.

This newsletter will naturally evolve, as I figure out how to best write to you, and what you prefer.

So please feel free to answer these emails if you’d like me to cover other stuff, or tell me if it’s too long, boring, whatever.

All feedback is very appreciated, especially in the beginning.

For now, I will divide it up into two themes:

· Short update on the biggest moves in the markets

· Actionable learnings for you and what to do

Regardless of what happens in the world, no matter how bad, this newsletter will always stay on the financial side of things.

Let’s get started.

The Sunday-to-Sunday Update

Russia invaded Ukraine between Wednesday and Thursday followed by a shockwave through the financial markets, with red numbers across almost everything, except for oil, gas and gold.

A few headlines:

· Russian stock index (the MOEX) ended the week in -28%

· The Russian economy is in free fall, with their two largest banks, VTB and SBER, taking a -48% hit this week.

· If the west chooses to exclude Russia from SWIFT (International transaction system), it looks even worse

· Oil is now $98 per barrel for the first time since 2014

So now we have a situation in the global markets, where the reserves are low on everything. Low on metals, low on gas, oil and commodities in general. In other words, we have scarcity.

With the demand for energy also being stronger than expected as we come out of covid, this applies further pressure = A lot of people want something, which is limited, so prices go up.

All this, with the added sanctions on Russia who is one of the largest suppliers of oil and gas, adds wood to the fire.

This will result in even more scarcity, so prices will likely continue up. This might even result in higher inflation and higher interest rates.

In other words… Prepare for larger energy bills, and higher prices for filling up the car (both EV and gas), plus higher interest on loans for a house.

Prepare for more waiting time on certain goods, and a volatile (risky) market going forward.

Tips and tricks

That all sounds hard to maneuver in terms of investing. And it is.

Sorry about the sour juice this morning.

HOW DO YOU GO ABOUT IT AND WHAT IS TO LEARN?

Most of the world markets are down -10% so far this year.

Understand that THIS IS NORMAL and happens every 2-3 years on average.

No biggie so far.

The question is: Will it continue?

The answer is: No one knows.

WHAT CAN YOU THEN DO?

You buy into the markets – but slowly.

Lower markets like these are a good opportunity to get started.

It always has been.

Just think about it. You want to invest and now everything is cheaper – great.

I know you’re thinking “but what if they fall further?”, well, then we can just buy some more.

Compare it to buying wine which you would like to sell in 10 years. You know the quality is good long-term, but because of outside factors, wine is suddenly cheaper. What do you do?

You buy wine.

If the price falls more, you will continue to buy.

The price doesn’t change what’s inside the bottle.

This will hurt in the moment, but play out well long-term

So take advantage of the markets, when they give you an opportunity like this.

You can start in the broad market with an index fund, a.k.a. “ETF”.

An ETF simply tracks an entire market of your choice.

With the uncertainty right now, this could be a world ETF like: iShares MSCI ACWI ETF.

It tracks the entire world markets and as such you are investing in the entire world through one single product. This is a good and smart way to get started.

Remember, you can always start with just a little bit. Then put in a bit more, every single month. No one says you have to throw in all your money now.

It could be as low as 5% of your net income every month.

Another thing here: You don’t HAVE to buy stocks. Stocks right now are very risky, and we’ve seen some extreme moves in very large companies.

If you don’t have knowledge about what will happen, then you don’t have to buy.

That was it for this time. I could go on, but you likely have other stuff to do .

Happy trading and think long-term.

I will see you next Sunday.

Stay awesome,

Martin

PS:

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